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Long Range Forecast
Courtesy of Pete 'The Frog" Taylor
For more details click on above link
Season 2011 – What has happened and where is it going?
18th of August @ 8:51PM
It started with early promise, early snowfalls in May and light snowfalls first week of June. The only negative early was that temps weren't so good for snowmaking. Mid June saw good snowfalls and the Spencer's Creek depth rose to over 70cm which was very good that early on.
With the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) dropping and Bureau's announcing an end to the current La Nina pattern things were looking good. The season really took off first week of July with 70-110cm across the major resorts from a very powerful series of fronts with blizzard conditions and gale force winds causing havoc across the mountains. Everyone was in high spirits with snow depths now at levels not seen for over 10 years.
This is where things plateaued. The SOI level started to rise again from the low positives that the early season had seen. This meant that the likelihood of warmer moist air from the north was increasing. We saw light snow in the middle July but nothing to really increase the snow depths much from what they were. A strong system moved over the mountains late in July and unfortunately teased us with temps hovering around 0.5C-1.5C and around 100mm of rain falling due to a SE airflow from an ECL (East Coast Low). Snow depths dropped as a result and the lower slopes really suffered.
What was worse to follow was a strong high over the SE of the country and an unseasonally warm airflow from the north bringing record warm temps for early August to some areas which resulted in a fair amount of snow melt. The SOI level was now back up to around 9 (for good snow I like to see this hover around +3 to +5) which wasn't good.
Rain this week has seen more damage to the cover, especially at Mount Buller which really copped a hammering. With limited snowmaking windows over the next week or two they will struggle to keep runs open.
Next week should see temps once again rise and a period of warm weather will see more snow melt occur. It looks like we will have to wait until at least the end of the month and the first week of September to see any good natural snowfalls which could be a little too late for some slopes (especially low elevation and high traffic areas). Unless we see good snow over the first two weeks of September (which I see as very possible looking at the current southern hemisphere setup and dropping SOI level) then it will be a season that showed promise but couldn't quite get there, although for Buller, Baw Baw and Selwyn it may be too late anyway.
Late season snow is not unusual, in 2009 we saw 50cm+ fall just after the last lifts closed in October so we just have to wait in hope.
Pete
Last Updated: 12th of May @ 10:21:24PM
LaNina
pattern we have been in since last season has been weakening very fast over the
last two weeks. As such we have seen a positive change in the the weather
patterns of the southern hemisphere.
As evidenced by the latest snowfalls and those looking likely to come over the
next few weeks, the low pressure systems have intensified and the high pressure
systems are placing themselves in far better positions to allow strong cool
systems to reach the mountains.
With the waters off WA and into the Bight warming we should see moisture
feeding into these cool systems as they head east towards the mountains of VIC
and NSW.
From what I first saw as a fairly normal/slow start to the season with La Nina slowly weakening
now looks like we could be in for a good June in regards to snowfalls thanks to
the speed of the La Nina breakdown.
If the SOI levels hover around
the +3 to +8 area we could see some very good snowfalls, not the smaller falls
we have been used to over the last few years but falls around 70-100cm due the
the cold fronts reaching further north that last season....(as of today the SOI is sitting just
above 6 down from 25 a couple of weeks ago).
Looking back over the last 30 years some of the best snowfalls have been on a
weakening La Nina (1981, 1996, 2000).
Although having said that there have been quite a few average La Nina years. A positive
is that the worst seasons (1982, 1993, 2006) have been the opposite El Nino (drier pattern)
years.
With all of the above falling into line I feel June to August could see some
very good dumps of snow from intense storm activity which should see the snow
depth increase dramatically. I’d be surprised if the Victorian resorts didn’t
finally crack the 2m mark and NSW could even be up around 2.5m by the end of
August.
I’ll be monitoring any changes in patterns leading up to the season and will
advise of any changes or information that may strengthen my views.
Pete (The Frog) Taylor
http://www.snowatch.com.au